Coffee prices to rise after drought in Brazil and Vietnam typhoon

The cost of a cup of coffee is expected to rise after a prolonged bout of dry weather in Brazil and a deadly typhoon in Vietnam.
Arabica coffee futures reached a 13-year high of above $2.60 per pound in New York on Monday. The rise comes as weather forecasts for Brazil, the world’s biggest arabica producer, predicted drier-than-normal conditions for the rest of the month.
The Minas Gerais region, which produces nearly a third of Brazil’s arabica crop, has had little rainfall in recent weeks, according to the country’s weather agency Somar Meteorologia. Meanwhile, robusta coffee prices have been driven up after Typhoon Yagi hit Vietnam a week ago, killing more than 140 people. It is believed to have badly damaged coffee crops.
“The potential of the 2025/26 arabica crop is hanging by a thread,” Carlos Mera, a Rabobank agri commodities analyst, told Bloomberg. Low rainfall in arabica-growing areas “comes at a time when the coffee industry is suffering from port congestion in several countries, global scarcity of containers, disruptions around the Red Sea and also disappointing crops in Vietnam.”
Arabica coffee is the second-most valuable traded and consumed commodity worldwide, after petroleum.
However, it is increasingly under threat from extreme weather events. Areas suitable for coffee could shrink by 50 per cent by 2050, according to climate simulations. Arabica is believed to be most at risk, requiring temperatures between 18C and 23C, and grows best at altitudes between 1,000 and 2,000 metres.
Some retailers have already begun to pass on higher coffee costs to consumers. Last month JM Smucker, the American consumer goods company behind brands including Dunkin’ and Café Bustelo, said it had made consecutive price rises to combat soaring prices of unroasted beans. “In response to recent higher green coffee costs and the pass-through nature of the coffee category, we are taking a second list price increase across our portfolio in early October,” Smucker said.
Pret A Manger, the UK coffee and sandwich chain, has also dropped its subscription service offering up to five barista-prepared drinks per day.